COVID-19 Coronavirus POV
NOTE: This was originally published in January of 2020 after the first peer-reviewed study of the virus and 8 weeks prior to the US shutdown. It was also the first in a series of articles related to foresight and the COVID pandemic. These have all now been archived here.
Why it is a threat and what business leaders need to start thinking about…
Background
Recently some experts have used highly inflammatory language describing the potential of the novel Coronavirus to spread and become a pandemic similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918. I have been researching and monitoring the future of diseases for over 20 years, and led a Fortune 500 company’s forecasting and action planning for Avian Flu, including multiple scenarios of mortality rates, infection rates, and effectiveness of countermeasures. While I believe that alarmists’ statements are over the top, what has come to light over the last few days about the virus is a cause for concern and contingency planning. As a result, I’m providing this note to my clients to help put information and developments into context and guide your own thinking and planning IF this virus breaks out of containment in China and spreads globally.
Caveats
This is a singular point of view and should not replace your organization seeking the views of multiple experts. It is also early days, and this POV rests on preliminary data. The virus will evolve so close monitoring within your organization is required. I strongly suggest to all of my clients setting up a small taskforce that interprets information as it comes in and creates a specific action plan for your company.
Wavepoint POV
The COVID-19 Coronavirus is a novel strain that leaped from an exotic animal kept in the Seafood Market in Wuhan. It is believed to be spread through droplets in the air to people close by living or working together. It causes pneumonia symptoms. Because of its novelty, humans do not have a strong immunity to it. Infection rates are quite high. There are four especially concerning traits of this virus:
Reproduction Number: Estimates suggest that every one person who contracts the virus will infect 2.5 other people. This is known as the basic reproduction number (RO), and at 2.5 it is as infectious or more infectious than the common flu. Any number above 1 means it is self-sustaining and growing. A RO of 2.5 makes it highly unlikely that this virus will be contained through normal quarantine measures. I believe it will probably spread globally in some form (hopefully a less powerful strain).
Incubation Period: Currently experts suggest that the time from exposure to symptoms is up to 14 days. This is much longer than SARS or the flu and makes containment almost impossible. Again, I believe this trait may allow it to spread globally.
Carriers: Carriers with no symptoms can still spread the virus. This makes containment very difficult.
Mortality Rate: Its mortality rate of 3% is already alarming, but paired with the fact that it probably won’t be contained and will infect a large number of people around the world the death toll will be significantly higher than yearly figures for the common flu, which is less than 1% and kills 400,000 people globally every year.
Some Good News
As viruses evolve and mutate, they may become more infectious, but they also diminish in mortality rate. This is because mutated strains that keep their host alive spread their version of the virus for a longer period of time, crowding out higher mortality strains that kill their hosts and can no longer spread. While the long incubation period of this virus may mitigate that, I would expect the mortality rate of the strains that break out to have a lower mortality rate. Additionally, the 3% mortality rate may be an over-estimate, because more people probably have the virus but were not identified.
We also do not know the real mortality rate of people with this virus in western developed nations with good access to medical care. I would expect the mortality rate in the US to be lower among populations with access to care. Right now, estimates are that 25% of people who contract this virus will need some access to medical care. If the medical care is of good quality, mortality rates will be lower. Federal, state and municipalities will need an action plan for the homeless and urban poor, as well as the elderly and those already in poor health.
While a vaccine may take some time, new technologies may be able to speed up the development and production of a vaccine that can significantly reduce the RO to under 1, which would mean the virus would slowly die off.
So…What to Do?
I strongly advise setting up a taskforce to help the company leadership and employees understand the concern and put in place contingency plans should the virus break out of containment and spread globally. Some things this taskforce should consider:
Remote Working: Examine who can do their work from home, make sure they have what they need in access and equipment, and when it looks like the virus is scaling in your geographies send as many people to work from home as possible. The long incubation period of this virus means that you cannot wait until people show symptoms before sending them home.
Strengthening Remote Worker infrastructure: Work with IT to unblock any available video and audio-conferencing solution from company firewalls. So many people will be staying home, including your customers, that conferencing solutions will be hit with high demand and people will want to switch between providers such as Google Hangouts, Zoom, Webex, to communicate with coworkers and customers.
Ensuring Access to Medical Care: Review your workforce to identify those who are not covered by employee health plans, such as part-time and contract employees. They may be reluctant to seek care when they have symptoms, exposing the rest of the workforce and suffer more severe symptons. Extend temporary benefits to these people to help the virus transmission rates slow and reduce the overall impact on your communities. It also avoids a PR problem if you have a large percentage of part-time workers who become sick because they do not have medical benefits.
Ensuring Access to Medical Equipment: Large companies may want to order their own supplies of masks, gloves, portable ventilators, and anti-virals (once they find some proven to work). It is unclear if supplies may be difficult to get once this gets rolling, so having some back-up in case of outages may be important for your employees and operations.
Ecommerce and BOPUS: More customers will want to shop online or Buy Online Pick Up in Store. Ensure that your ecommerce infrastructure can handle a significant increase in volume. Cross-train employees for more BOPUS deliveries.
Employee Communication Plan: Build a strong educational module for employees and talking points for leaders, ahead of a potential pandemic and for updating and informing employees during a crisis. Encourage employees to get a flu shot to reduce the workload of healthcare professionals not having to treat flu patients while trying to stop the coronavirus.
Supply Chain: Check in with critical suppliers and ensure they have contingency plans for lower worker availability, inventory problems, and delivery work-arounds.
Travel: Pretty obvious one but restrict business travel to affected areas and check in on employees who have recently returned from Asia.
External Advisory Board: Build strong relationships with municipal leaders, healthcare professionals, disease experts, and other businesses. This will ensure access to up-to-date information and coordinate the company’s efforts with the larger ecosystem.
Lower Revenues and Profits: If the virus breaks containment and has a significant impact, it is reasonable to expect that it will shave a point or two of GDP and tip many economies into a minor recession of 2 quarters. This will not be anywhere near the impact of the Great Recession, but companies will experience lower productivity, lower sales, and higher costs associated with responding to the virus.
Conclusion
I believe the virus at this stage warrants companies to have a taskforce in place to develop contingency plans in the areas above (and others specific to your business). While there is not a clear signal to start activating these plans, some forethought now can save time and effort and mitigate the impact on your company’s employees, customers and operations.